Longstanding, regionally fragmented security crises in Nigeria are fueled by a complex mix of factors

Last Christmas, symbolically, the US carried out several Tomahawk missiles strikes on what they called "IS camps" in Nigeria's Sokoto state. President Donald Trump noted that the strikes targeted those who "have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even centuries." But is it really only the desire to solve the problem of Christians in Nigeria that guides Trump's actions? Above all, the current security crisis in the country should be seen as a much more complex picture than is presented by the US administration, and is not rooted in faith issues, though attacks on Christians are part of it.

The country has been recently plagued by an upsurge in mass kidnappings and attacks carried out by armed gangs using forest hideouts. On January 3, armed groups raided Kasuwan-Daji village in Niger State, reportedly killing at least 30 people and abducting an unspecified number. In November, gunmen abducted more than 300 children and staff from St. Mary's Catholic School in the same state, one of the largest school kidnappings in years (on 21 December, the Nigerian government announced that all abducted schoolchildren had been freed from captivity). And these are just two recent examples on a long list which keeps growing.

In response to the attacks, which claimed hundreds of lives, President Bola Tinubu declared a nationwide security emergency on November 26 and ordered additional recruitment into the armed forces. The president instructed that the strength of the security forces, particularly the police, be increased by 20,000 personnel, as well as that training be facilitated through National Youth Service Corps camps and that officers be retrained for deployment to crisis zones.

Complicated picture: Boko Haram and IS

Nigeria has demonstrated systemic instability for many years, driven by chronic security crises that are fragmented by region and fueled by a combination of factors: from ideological extremism in the northeast, banditry in the northwestern states, to farmer-herder conflicts in the Middle Belt, leading to the erosion of state control, economic losses, and humanitarian crises.

This complex of threats not only weakens central authority but also intensifies the linkage between domestic challenges and transnational threats, making Nigeria vulnerable to external interference.

Conflict in northeastern Nigeria between government forces and terrorist groups with a criminal bent, such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) remains dangerous. These groups are the deadliest terrorist organizations in Nigeria, with thousands of people dying annually in their attacks.

In recent years, there has been an alarming expansion of their activity into southern and western states, which were previously less affected. This signals the failure of the government's counterterrorism strategies and the growing adaptability of the jihadists, who diversify their logistics and recruitment by exploiting economic problems and ethno-cultural disputes. In 2024 civilians accounted for more than 62% of terror attack victims.

Centuries of confrontation

Terrorist activity overlaps with the centuries-old confrontation between herders and farmers, where superficial religious and ethnic aspects mask deep-rooted socio-economic causes. Historically entrenched clashes over control of arable land have intensified in recent years due to demographic pressure, climate change, and degradation of pastures. Migration from arid Sahel regions to humid forest zones leads to clashes with farmers, who complain that livestock destroys their crops and livelihoods.

To observers, the land-use conflict may appear to be based on religious and ethnic forms, mainly because most farmers are Christians from various ethnic groups, while most herders are Muslim Fulani, but it's an oversimplification, if not a distortion of the big picture. The roots of the conflicts are always either direct disputes over land or political contradictions and leaders' conflicts, who mobilize supporters from among their kin. As a result, this has led to the deaths of over 10,000 residents of northern regions and the forced displacement of up to two million farmers, undermining food security and intensifying the power vacuum exploited by terrorists.

Radicalizing youth

In northwestern Nigeria, the activities of criminal groups are particularly noticeable, who engage in attacks on the local population and armed forces to seize weapons. Exploiting the deep socio-economic crisis - mass unemployment, poverty, and failures of local governance - these groups radicalize marginalized youth. Having entrenched themselves in remote areas, these groups become inaccessible to Nigeria's security forces, creating a power vacuum.

In recent years, this vacuum has been exploited by transnational terrorists, such as the Islamic State in the Sahel Province (operating primarily in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali), who form tactical alliances with criminal groups for joint operations and resource sharing. This situation further increases civilian casualties, and leads to a rise in the number of refugees and internally displaced persons.

Biafra and attacks on oil facilities

In the southeast of the country, fragmented separatist groups carry out guerrilla attacks on government forces. They support the secession of Biafra - a territory in southeastern Nigeria, predominantly inhabited by Igbo (mostly Christians) - claiming that this is a fight to protect the Igbo people.

The conflict is rooted in the historical trauma of the 1967-1970 Civil War, exacerbated by contemporary disparities in resource distribution and the region's economic backwardness. As a result, not only security forces suffer, but also civilians - through regular kidnappings of the population and priests, murders, and economic paralysis.

In the Niger Delta, an oil-rich region, criminal groups continue to operate, attacking oil and gas infrastructure and kidnapping employees of foreign companies for ransom demands. The region has been a hotspot of unrest, crime, and periodic armed uprisings since the 1970s, driven by local dissatisfaction with ecosystem destruction resulting from oil and gas extraction.

US stance: strikes over 'genocide'?

The United States has exerted pressure on the Nigerian authorities throughout the second half of 2025, with President Donald Trump expressing concern for the fate of the Christian community in the country. Last July, the US Commission on International Religious Freedom called for Nigeria to be returned to the list of Countries of Particular Concern (CPC). In September, Republican Senator from Texas Ted Cruz introduced a bill to impose sanctions on Nigerian officials, stating that they are ignoring and even facilitating the mass murder of Christians by Islamist Jihadists.

On October 31, President Trump designated Nigeria a CPC. This is a list compiled by the Secretary of State of countries whose governments have engaged in or tolerated "particularly severe violations of religious freedom" under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998.

Trump further intensified the pressure by allowing for the possibility of military intervention in Nigeria, following a campaign by a number of American lawmakers and religious activists calling for greater attention to attacks on Christians in Nigeria. Although Nigerian officials responded to the US statements, noting that they distort the complex security situation, Presidential Spokesman Daniel Bwala stated that Nigeria "welcomes US assistance" in combating Islamic insurgents, provided Washington respects its "territorial integrity."

At the end of November, Trump once again drew attention to the problem of terrorist attacks in Nigeria, linking the situation to attacks on the Christian community. In his statement, Trump used the term 'genocide' for the first time, emphasizing the inability of Nigerian authorities to protect the local Christian population.

A high-level delegation of Nigerian security leaders headed by National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu traveled to Washington, where it held talks with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. During these talks, both sides expressed a mutual desire to stop violence against Christians and combat West African terrorist groups.

On December 26, 2025, the US carried out several Tomahawk missile strikes on "IS camps" in Sokoto State. In Trump's statement, it was specifically noted that the strike targeted those who "have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even centuries." Notably, the secretary of war stated that these were not the last strikes. The action also had a symbolic character, occurring on Christmas Day.

According to reports from both sides, the American strike on the 'Islamic State' was coordinated with Nigeria, which stated that they "resulted from ongoing information exchange and cooperation in security and intelligence between the US and the Nigerian government." That means the parties were able to agree on a certain level of coordination.

The US bombing targeted positions of the local Lakurawa group based in Sokoto State. However, its effectiveness remains unclear, with estimates of between zero and 155 militants killed, highlighting gaps in intelligence, while a number of sources also reported strikes on local residents. Lakurawa combines banditry and Islamist ideology in its activities. Although it has recently been linked to Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP), which is gradually moving towards the borders of Nigeria, Lakurawa is largely autonomous. At the same time, the more active branch in Nigeria remains ISWAP, which operates in the north-eastern provinces of the country.

It seems unlikely that individual strikes will have a noticeable impact on the security situation in Nigeria and the region in the long term. At the same time, Trump's actions should be viewed not as a desire to "solve the problem of Christians in Nigeria," but as work for his domestic audience, where the issue of Christians in Nigeria an opportunity to strengthen his position among his supporters.

And what do Nigerian Christians say?

Kidnappings and murders, terrorist acts, and attacks by criminal groups in Nigeria are regular occurrences, during which all Nigerians of various faiths and ethnic groups suffer. On one hand, terrorist groups, which typically associate themselves with Islam, regularly attack churches and parishioners in several Nigerian states. Therefore, formally, part of the civilian population dies because they are Christians.

However, extremist acts do not have public support; mutual understanding generally persists between religious communities in the country, and in numerous attacks in the north, Muslims living there perish, viewed by terrorists as apostates from the faith.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the reaction of Christian leaders to Trump's statements was generally cautious. Although most Nigerian Christian leaders opposed the country's inclusion on the CPC list, some pastors, for example from Pentecostal and Catholic communities, welcomed Trump's attention to the issue. Others stated that banditry should not be labeled as religious persecution, emphasizing that the problem is more complex.

The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) - the main coordinating body for various Christian denominations in the country - called for unity rather than inflaming tensions. The chairman of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the northern states, Reverend John Joseph Hayab, welcomed the attention to the issue, telling journalists that Trump's words "should be a reason for peace-loving Christians and Muslims to unite and demand that the government take concrete steps to ensure the security and freedom of all citizens, regardless of religion or affiliation."

Official statements from representatives of the Catholic Bishops' Conference of Nigeria emphasized the need to support efforts to combat terrorism. Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah from Sokoto noted that Nigeria's inclusion on the CPC list carries negative consequences for interfaith relations, that violence by terrorists "affects people of all religions," and warned that portraying the situation as one-sided 'Christian genocide' does not reflect reality.

Archbishop Simeon Borokini from Akure stated that Trump's assessments are exaggerated and there is no genocide in Nigeria: "I don't consider this genocide. It's not only Christians who are persecuted and killed." Leaders of the Church of Nigeria (Anglican community) responded more positively to Trump's words. Archbishop Henry Ndukuba, the Church of Nigeria's primate, said: "God has not forgotten the country amidst its escalating socioeconomic hardship and security challenges."

At the same time, the US missile strike on 'IS' was received with cautious positivity by some Christian leaders, who mainly noted the role of agreements between the Nigerian government and Washington. In particular, Auxiliary Bishop John Bogna Bakeni from Maiduguri stated that the strike was long overdue and the Nigerian government is open to international assistance amid the instability.

The chairman of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the northern states, Reverend John Joseph Hayab, welcomed the strike in the context of potentially ending the crisis: "If attacks on terrorists will put an end to the killing of Nigerians, whether Muslims or Christians, we welcome it." Father Humphrey Boyo from the Makurdi diocese noted the positive nature of the event aimed at giving value and dignity to human life, remarking that "the source of defense is not really important."

At the same time, more critical voices were heard, particularly Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah of Sokoto, who stated that violence does not overcome violence, noting that Christianity survived oppression through resilience, not force.

The security problem in Nigeria appears much more complex, based not so much on the activities of specific groups, but on poor socio-economic conditions that push people to join terrorists and criminals, as well as an insufficient level of state control at the local level, associated with problems of funding and personnel in the security forces.

Under such conditions, for a positive effect, a long-term strategy to counter extremism and crime at the state level is required, combining elements of military containment with socio-economic reforms, rather than individual "strikes on terrorist camps."